Event Rankings: MPO Top 75 for WACO

Post event update: This is supposed to get easier. Instead, the results this time around for predictions, on MPO side, were quite subpar. Hopefully, this is the low point of the 2024 season. Here’s the criteria we are going with (same as last event):

• Yellow = 0 to 2 places that the Order (guess) was off from 2024 (actual) place. This is top tier prediction, that we reference as “Spot On.” Exact Match or zero off is the ideal, but the range for top tier guess is within 2 of being correct.
• Green = 3 to 10 places off is “Semi-close.” 
• Orange = 11 to 25 places off is “Somewhat off”
• Red = 26 to 39 places off is “Well off”
• Gray = 40+ places off or “Way off”

AF had 1 prediction that was spot on, and not an exact match. And it was near bottom of the list of 75. So 1.5% of our predictions were spot on. Ouch. If including green squares, getting semi-close, it gets much better at 27%. Unfortunately, that is still worse than we did with the first tournament (Chess).

27% also matches how many of our Waco predictions were way off. Our way off meter at Chess was just 15%. While the newer course at Waco did impact our guesses, that isn’t a great excuse. Predictive analysis and forecasting final results is quite challenging, as well as entertaining. Determining how effective or accurate the guesses are is the ongoing challenge. With that said 20% being spot on is still the goal for MPO event projections, going forward.

What’s below is what was published before the event started.

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This marks Art’s Fudge second attempt at Event Rankings intended as predictive analysis. The list below contains projected order for how 75, fantasy relevant, MPO players will fare at the second Elite event of the 2024 season. Designated as Elite+, this tournament provides touring pros greater point values toward the DGPT season long standings. For fantasy disc golf, WACO plays the same as every other event on the standard schedule, with key exception of the field being stronger. Both the Chess Invitational and WACO had 112 play in the MPO division, while Chess had 18 players rated under 1000, WACO has just 4.

Last Updated: 7 pm on Wednesday Mar. 6 (to reflect projected winner dropping out)
Last checked: 7 pm Wed. Mar. 6 (update above)

This Event Ranking list is different from the Chess version, and is a sign of the evolving nature of these new to the market rankings. This time around we are invoking ties with our predictions for how each player places at the tournament. It is far more likely ties happen, than not. Chess offered very little data to go on, while WACO has a rich history, and in past 5 years, much of the list has sufficient history to warrant tracking averages.

The ranking is truly meant to be viewed as simple list, depicting projected order they’ll finish from 1 through 75, along with their AF latest ranking (updated earlier this week), then player name, rating, and actual place they end up at 2024 WACO.

Overview of Colors

Color on the lists are adding multiple layers of info, that provide added perspective and indicate relative player fantasy value. The first column (projected order) and final column (actual place) have no added color layering, going into the event. The other 3 columns may benefit from the following guidance:

• AF Rank column is using color to depict 9 tiers within MPO rankings, corresponding to fantasy points (in re-draft leagues). The color guide below spells out what the 9 tiers are in order of best to worst. The standard rankings are the more stable alignment of player rankings, and both the actual ranking number and color in this column are where the player stands for the season. With just one event so far in 2024, standard rankings are borrowing information from 2023 season to shape overall order.
• MPO Player column is making use of color in the following ways:
  • Green background on player name indicates their average at WACO in past 5 years is 20th or better, assuming they’ve played at least twice.
  • Red background on player name conveys their average in past 5 years is 41st or worse.
  • No color background and black text is for players who have a 5 year average between 21st and 40th place
  • Green is good, no color is okay, red is bad. And yellow is best.
  • Yellow background color is for the players averaging 5th or better in past 5 years. For WACO, this applies to Cale and McBeth, with Cale being #1, and both have played at least 4 of the past 5 years. Cale’s worst finish is 7th, which he did in 2023.
  • Green text with any color background (other than white), means player finished in top 5 at the 2023 WACO event.
  • Green text with no color background (white) means they’ve played one time in past 5 years, and finished 20th or better.
  • Purple text with no color background means they’ve played once in past 5 years, and finished 70th or worse.
  • Red text and no background indicates it is player’s first time playing WACO in last 5 years
• Rating column is conveying player value, relative to where they are projected to finish. Of the 112 playing, AF tracks 103 of them, and each of those are assigned an additional ranking based on their rating: highest rated player is first, and lowest rated pro is last. If low rated player is projected to finish high (i.e. top 25), their value is likely top notch (yellow). Likewise, if high rated player is projected to finish low (i.e. bottom 25, of 75) their value is likely very poor (gray). Those who’s rating rank matches their projected finish, get orange background on rating. Basically, if projected ranking is 10 spots or more than rating rank, they get yellow, and 11+ spots less than rating rank, they get gray. The other colors are conveying nuances between that range. Orange is solid value, that can get stronger (light orange, gold, green and yellow).

Hitting the Target

The main objective, besides having fun with added rankings, is to accurately predict the final outcome of the event. When the ‘2024 Place’ column is updated, color will be added to depict how close the projected order was to actual place. We are aiming for within 2 of the actual place, or better. So far, around 10% correct is best we’ve done on MPO side, which is quite humbling. We are currently aiming for at least 20% of the 75 to be spot on (within 2 of actual).

Of the 9 or so players we don’t track or include in event rankings, the main rationale is whether they show up as fantasy relevant players to the 2024 season. We are likely monitoring the higher rated players in field that aren’t noted in our event rankings (or standard rankings) and as soon as they warrant adding to the more active list, we intend to make that happen. With that said:

Added Notes

Heimburg dropped form 2024 Waco on Wednesday, or day before the start. In pretty much every other list Art’s Fudge publishes, the drop of a player from upcoming event is quick update, and easy to move on. With event projections, and him predicted to win it, the change is extensive. AF shares this additional note with hope it helps others considering event predictions. Also, Art has desire to speak transparently.

The projected order of most to all 75 players on the list changed with Calvin’s dropping. As do their relative value within the event (which the Rating column conveys). If instead a player drops and was ranked 75th on list below, it would be a very quick update. An interesting nuance occurred with the list whereby AF is sticking with Cale finishing 2nd, rather than bumping him up to 1st from 2nd, with player ahead of him dropping. Ricky takes over as winner, and rest of placements are same, but one number lower (better). Some of the ties were altered, just to keep things interesting.

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Tip: Put mobile phone in landscape mode for better view of tables below.

Quick color guide

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Top 25 Event Rankings for WACO event

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Next 25 Event Rankings for WACO Event

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Final 25 Event Rankings for WACO Event