Event Rankings: Top 75 MPO for Open at Austin

Post event update: What a difference a single week makes. After Waco, our predictions for that event were about as bad as it gets, getting just 1 guess that was correct, or spot on. Prior to that, we had 7 that were spot on from Chess event. For the Austin event, we surpassed both of those, rather significantly. Here’s the criteria we are going with (same as last event):

• Yellow = 0 to 2 places that the Order (guess) was off from 2024 (actual) place. This is top tier prediction, that we reference as “Spot On.” Exact Match or zero off is the ideal, but the range for top tier guess is within 2 of being correct.
• Green = 3 to 10 places off is “Semi-close.” 
• Orange = 11 to 25 places off is “Somewhat off”
• Red = 26 to 39 places off is “Well off”
• Gray = 40+ places off or “Way off”

We had 14 yellow squares, or spot on predictions. None of the previous events had spot on guesses that were also exact matches, though Austin had 2 of those. The 14 correct guesses amounts to 19% accuracy, or 1% off of our target goal of 20%. Our previous best this season was 10%. 18 more squares were green, which means 32 total predictions were semi-close or better. That equates to 43% being at least semi close predictions. This too is up from our previous best of 30% in 2024.

We would also note that Matt Orum is listed as 9th overall player on the order below, and he did finish in 9th place, though we predicted the tie at 8th for him. That is still spot on, but very close to being exact match. Just below Orum was Cole Redalen at 10th overall, but he too was predicted in tie for 8th, and finished in 6th place, to give us another spot on prediction, which was greatly aided by placing him in a tie as our prediction.

Also, in the Waco prediction, of the top 25, we had 9 that were either well off or way off, whereas for Austin, we had just 3 that were well off in the top 25, but none that were way off. Again, what a difference a week makes.

What’s below is what we published before the start of the event.

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This is our 3rd attempt at event predictions for an Elite event in 2024. Our objective is to get 20% of our predictions (Order column) within 2 numbers of the actual place each MPO player finishes at Austin (2024 place – column). This is proving to be a high bar, as it means 15 of the 75 would be correct. In the event before this one (WACO), we had just 1 correct guess (within 2 of actual place).

Last Updated: 1:30 pm on Thurs. Mar. 14 (dropped Nate Hecker, added Zachary Nash)
Last checked: Same as update

The Open at Austin is another event with very little historical data for elite pros. It is the 2nd year it is an Elite event on pro tour. Fortunately, there’s been some season played to give us some indication of who’s doing well, and who may be struggling a bit.

The event predictions are truly meant to be viewed as simple list, depicting projected order they’ll finish from 1 through 75, along with their AF latest ranking (updated earlier this week), then player name, rating, and actual place they end up at 2024 Austin.

For understanding the colors, or added layering to the event rankings, please see our description from the last event rankings page.

Of the 20 or so players we don’t track or include in event rankings, the main rationale is whether they show up as fantasy relevant players to the 2024 season. We are likely monitoring the higher rated players in field that aren’t noted in our event rankings (or standard rankings) and as soon as they warrant adding to the more active list, we intend to make that happen. With that said:

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Tip: Put mobile phone in landscape mode for better view of tables below.

quick color guide

Top 25 MPO Event Rankings for Austin

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Next 25 MPO Event Rankings for Austin

Final 25 MPO Event Rankings for Austin