Post event update: A respected journeyman on tour wins the first major for MPO this season in an event marked by odd weather and super tough scoring for entire field. If you visit our Hot Rounds page for MPO on the 2024 season, you’ll see most events have best round that is double digits under par. Champions Cup best round was neg 7, which is low and is sign of how tough this course was for the most elite players in the sport.
Shot of the tournament: Hole 16, final round, Presnell nails birdie putt from 30 feet out. Why is this ‘the’ shot of the tournament? Because this was the shot that determined the final outcome. The context was Niklas was 2 strokes behind, and also about 30 feet out, but on flat ground. Prez had 3 options: A – lay up his putt and maintain 1 stroke lead with 2 holes to go, B – go for it and possibly miss long, into water and risk tying up with Niklas, or C – go for it, bending the putt around a tree, and make it to maintain 2 stroke lead. He of course made it, and this forced Niklas on 17 to be more aggressive, in which case Niklas bogeys 17, Prez birdies and the event was out of reach for Presnell’s nearest competitor in the standings.
Our event predictions for Champions Cup on MPO side was a mixed bag. We did the same as last week, on the spot on guesses (8 right guesses), noticeably better on the exact matches (4), slight improvement on semi-close or better, and slightly better on guesses that were well off or rose. Here is the quick rundown:
- 41% of our picks were semi-close or better to being accurate
- 11% or 8 of 75 were spot on, with 4 of them being exact matches (green text on yellow squares)
- 36% of our picks were well off, or worse
- Which means around 23% were in the middle of those two
The goal for MPO predictions remains at us getting 20% or better that are spot on.
What’s below is what was published before the event started, other than final results of event.
Our event rankings, or predictions for how each player will place among a set of 75 fantasy relevant players, continues with the next Elite event on the pro tour. Our hope is these rankings inform fantasy disc golf participants as well as entertain fans of the pro tour.
First published: 7 pm on Wednesday Apr. 17th (for top 10 list)
Last updated: Wed. 4/24, noon (replace top 10 list with top 75)
Last checked: Thur. 4/25, 7 am (no changes) – event about to start
Simplicity
The event predictions are truly meant to be viewed as simple list, depicting projected order they’ll finish from 1 through 75, along with their AF latest ranking (updated earlier this week), then player name, rating, and actual place they end up at 2024 Champs.
Our 2024 early season goal aims for 20% accuracy with correct predictions. We recently achieved this, for our first time, on FPO side, and got 19% accuracy on MPO side a few events ago. It is quite challenging, humbling and enjoyable.
Meets Nuances
Color in the list explains other relevant information that added columns might make rather boring. This includes tier the player current resides, historical performance at the event, and player value relative to their rating and ranking for the event. After the event, in the actual place column, we use color to depict how close or well off our predictions were. For more details on color, please see this detailed overview of the colors from a month ago.
For 2024 Champions Cup the historical information is not included as it is new course for this event, and different layout configuration than Ledgestone Open, but playing at that venue. So for this tournament list, we chose to forego any indication of historical info for Champions Cup, to avoid confusion in our predictions.
For MPO list only, we added 2 colors to the mix represented in the Color Guide below. EB (light green) is for ‘even better’ than best, and EW is not ‘ewww.’ Instead it stands for ‘even worse’ than worst. This pertains to Rating column and player value. Yellow (best) and gray (worst) are depicting players 1+ tiers above or below their ranking by rating. These added colors are going 2.5 tiers or more above or below rating rank.
As for the Rest
Our approach is to track and rank all fantasy relevant players. Of the 20 or so MPO in the field that are playing, but not part of our list, there are 3 types of players in that mix. Some are ones we rank who are outside top 75, and saved as a sort of waiting list in case others on the list drop from the event. The 2nd type are players who we are tracking, but are not quite fantasy relevant. They could be by the next event, and we will continue to monitor them. The 3rd type are lower rated players who may surprise many and do well at the event, though typically over 3 rounds of elite level play, they tend to settle near the bottom of the standings. Our hope is to rank them someday. With that said:
| 5 NOTABLES NOT AT Champs |
|---|
| Simon Lizotte |
| James Proctor |
| Cale Leiviska |
| Bradley Williams |
| Eric Oakley |
| Austin Turner |
| 3 UNRANKED MPO AT Champs | rating |
|---|---|
| Paul Krans | 1021 |
| Calvin Lonnquist | 1015 |
| Braeden Sides | 1020 |
Tip: Put mobile phone in landscape mode for better view of tables below.
quick color guide
| EB | Best | For full color guide - click here | Worst | EW | ||||||
Top 25 MPO Tournament Projections at Champions Cup
| Order | AF Rank | MPO Player | Rating | 2024 Place |
| 1 | 3 | Ricky Wysocki | 1046 | 3 |
| 2 | 7 | Matt Orum | 1045 | 6 |
| 3 | 2 | Gannon Buhr | 1049 | 10 |
| 3 | 11 | Isaac Robinson | 1040 | 22 |
| 5 | 4 | Chris Dickerson | 1041 | 6 |
| 5 | 6 | Mason Ford | 1032 | 29 |
| 7 | 16 | Niklas Anttila | 1042 | 2 |
| 8 | 33 | Paul McBeth | 1037 | 10 |
| 9 | 40 | Chris Clemons | 1026 | 58 |
| 10 | 1 | Anthony Barela | 1039 | 10 |
| 10 | 50 | Kevin Jones | 1022 | 60 |
| 12 | 8 | Eagle McMahon | 1049 | 90 |
| 13 | 9 | Ezra Robinson | 1040 | 3 |
| 14 | 18 | Joel Freeman | 1034 | 6 |
| 15 | 5 | Calvin Heimburg | 1050 | 5 |
| 15 | 20 | Ezra Aderhold | 1029 | 25 |
| 17 | 15 | Kyle Klein | 1039 | 17 |
| 18 | 14 | Luke Humphries | 1024 | 36 |
| 19 | 27 | Gregg Barsby | 1024 | 15 |
| 20 | 38 | Corey Ellis | 1034 | 96 |
| 20 | 42 | Gavin Babcock | 1022 | 54 |
| 22 | 84 | Aidan Scott | 1015 | 62 |
| 23 | 29 | Jeremy Koling | 1025 | 33 |
| 23 | 43 | Evan Smith | 1026 | 36 |
| 25 | 19 | Aaron Gossage | 1030 | 20 |
Next 25 MPO Tournament Projections at Champions Cup
| Order | AF Rank | MPO Player | Rating | 2024 Place |
| 26 | 10 | Cole Redalen | 1039 | 26 |
| 26 | 21 | Andrew Marwede | 1028 | 26 |
| 26 | 44 | Albert Tamm | 1022 | 77 |
| 26 | 54 | Garrett Gurthie | 1025 | 29 |
| 30 | 65 | Nikko Locastro | 1025 | 62 |
| 31 | 70 | Chandler Kramer | 1018 | 77 |
| 32 | 75 | Zachary Nash | 1015 | 81 |
| 33 | 45 | Paul Ulibarri | 1024 | 20 |
| 33 | 47 | Ben Callaway | 1026 | 62 |
| 35 | 23 | Joseph Anderson | 1032 | 6 |
| 35 | 26 | Alden Harris | 1029 | 42 |
| 35 | 36 | Silas Schultz | 1018 | 41 |
| 38 | 17 | Matt Bell | 1026 | 22 |
| 39 | 30 | Andrew Presnell | 1029 | 1 |
| 39 | 32 | Jake Hebenheimer | 1018 | 62 |
| 41 | 28 | Gavin Rathbun | 1022 | 33 |
| 42 | 62 | Evan Scott | 1020 | 80 |
| 43 | 78 | Nate Hecker | 1019 | 87 |
| 44 | 97 | Austin Hannum | 1012 | 93 |
| 45 | 66 | Drew Gibson | 1024 | 54 |
| 46 | 31 | Casey White | 1020 | 14 |
| 46 | 53 | James Conrad | 1025 | 22 |
| 48 | 52 | Robert Burridge | 1021 | 10 |
| 49 | 49 | Emerson Keith | 1022 | 17 |
| 50 | 100 | Sullivan Tipton | 1024 | 85 |
Final 25 MPO Tournament Projections at Champions Cup
| Order | AF Rank | MPO Player | Rating | 2024 Place |
| 51 | 80 | Carter Ahrens | 1007 | 81 |
| 52 | 35 | Vaino Makela | 1032 | 62 |
| 52 | 68 | Andrew Fish | 1013 | 58 |
| 54 | 22 | Adam Hammes | 1029 | 33 |
| 55 | 37 | Ty Love | 1013 | 44 |
| 55 | 39 | Nathan Queen | 1020 | 48 |
| 57 | 46 | Grady Shue | 1023 | 48 |
| 58 | 56 | Kevin Kiefer | 1019 | 81 |
| 59 | 67 | Linus Carlsson | 1008 | 79 |
| 60 | 74 | Thomas Gilbert | 1015 | 89 |
| 60 | 85 | Luke Taylor | 1028 | 44 |
| 60 | 95 | Brodie Smith | 1011 | 42 |
| 63 | 12 | Jakub Semerad | 1029 | 17 |
| 64 | 57 | Paul Oman | 1016 | 54 |
| 64 | 58 | Joona Heinänen | 1028 | 29 |
| 66 | 71 | Fredy Meza | 1016 | 15 |
| 67 | 82 | Tristan Tanner | 1009 | 95 |
| 68 | 92 | Connor O'Reilly | 1008 | 73 |
| 69 | 81 | Max Regitnig | 1012 | 90 |
| 69 | 96 | Tim Barham | 1009 | 62 |
| 71 | 55 | Zach Arlinghaus | 1018 | 70 |
| 71 | 64 | Luke Samson | 1014 | 48 |
| 73 | 79 | Jake Monn | 1013 | 70 |
| 74 | 88 | Tuomas Hyytiäinen | 1014 | 94 |
| 75 | 98 | Mason Marchbanks | 1014 | 48 |