Post event update: (Copy / pasted from previous update, with changes in key details) The 2023 fantasy disc golf Player of the Year takes down his second pro tour win of 2024 at OTB, and his first Elite win in around a week. While he’s been ‘struggling’ a bit in early 2024, his version of struggling is different than around 97% of the rest of the division. And 2 consecutive first place finishes makes it easy to forget about any recent struggles he allegedly was having. (End copy/paste.)
Our event predictions for MPO at OTB ended up being tough sledding. Below, on this page, is note of when we ‘last checked’ who’s in and who’s out, which was 10 minutes before fantasy rosters closed. And yet, somehow Presnell’s drop slipped by us. This always makes for greater challenge in how we tabulate our projections, after the event, and assess accuracy. Here is the quick rundown:
- 31% of our picks (18 of 59) were semi-close or better to being accurate
- 5% or 3 of 59 were spot on, with 1 being an exact match, Eagle at 13th place.
- 20% of our picks were well off, or worse
- Which means around 49% were in the middle of those two (orange)
The goal for MPO predictions remains at us getting 20% or better that are spot on. This OTB showing was subpar by our current standards, though 20% on well off, or worse, is a considerable improvement.
What’s below is what was published before the event started, other than final results of event.
Our event rankings, or predictions for how each player will place among a set of 60 fantasy relevant players, continues with the next Elite event on the pro tour. Our hope is these rankings inform fantasy disc golf participants as well as entertain fans of the pro tour.
First published: 12:15 am on Sunday May 12th (for top 10 list)
Last updated: 9:30 pm, May 14 (replaced top 10 with top 60 list)
Last checked: 7:50 am, Fri. May 17 (no changes since last update)
Simplicity
The event predictions are truly meant to be viewed as simple list, depicting projected order they’ll finish from 1 through 60, along with their AF latest ranking (updated earlier this week), then player name, rating, and actual place they end up at 2024 OTB.
Our 2024 early season goal aims for 20% accuracy with correct predictions. We recently achieved this, for our fourth time, on FPO side, and got 19% accuracy on MPO side a little over a month ago. It is quite challenging, humbling and enjoyable.
Meets Nuances
Color in the list explains other relevant information that added columns might make rather boring. This includes tier the player current resides, historical performance at the event, and player value relative to their rating and ranking for the event. After the event, in the actual place column, we use color to depict how close or well off our predictions were. For more details on color, please see this detailed overview of the colors from a month ago.
For MPO list only, we added 2 colors to the mix represented in the Color Guide below. EB (light green) is for ‘even better’ than best, and EW is not ‘ewww.’ Instead it stands for ‘even worse’ than worst. This pertains to Rating column and player value. Yellow (best) and gray (worst) are depicting players 1+ tiers above or below their ranking by rating. These added colors are going 2.5 tiers or more above or below rating rank.
As for the Rest
Our approach is to track and rank all fantasy relevant players. Of the 50 or so MPO in the field that are playing, but not part of our list, there are 3 types of players in that mix. Some are ones we rank who are outside top 60, and saved as a sort of waiting list in case others on the list drop from the event. The 2nd type are players who we are tracking, but are not quite fantasy relevant. They could be by the next event, and we will continue to monitor them. The 3rd type are lower rated players who may surprise many and do well at the event, though typically over 3 rounds of elite level play, they tend to settle near the bottom of the standings. Our hope is to rank them someday. With that said:
| 6 NOTABLES NOT AT OTB |
|---|
| Chris Dickerson |
| Simon Lizotte |
| Kyle Klein |
| Joel Freeman |
| Andrew Presnell |
| Mason Ford |
| 3 UNRANKED MPO AT OTB | rating |
|---|---|
| Calvin Lonnquist | 1015 |
| Josh Anthon | 1014 |
| Steve Rico | 1006 |
Tip: Put mobile phone in landscape mode for better view of tables below.
quick color guide
| EB | Best | For full color guide - click here | Worst | EW | ||||||
Top 10 MPO Fantasy Projections for OTB
| Order | AF Rank | MPO Player | Rating | 2024 Place |
| 1 | 2 | Anthony Barela | 1040 | 18 |
| 2 | 1 | Gannon Buhr | 1048 | 13 |
| 3 | 14 | Aaron Gossage | 1030 | 18 |
| 4 | 3 | Ricky Wysocki | 1047 | 6 |
| 4 | 5 | Calvin Heimburg | 1049 | 1 |
| 6 | 13 | Matt Orum | 1041 | 26 |
| 7 | 11 | Andrew Presnell | 1030 | - |
| 7 | 21 | Isaac Robinson | 1036 | 13 |
| 7 | 39 | Emerson Keith | 1023 | 21 |
| 10 | 26 | Paul McBeth | 1037 | 18 |
Next 20 MPO Fantasy Projections for OTB
| Order | AF Rank | MPO Player | Rating | 2024 Place |
| 11 | 8 | Niklas Anttila | 1039 | 26 |
| 11 | 12 | Joseph Anderson | 1032 | 46 |
| 13 | 29 | Eagle McMahon | 1044 | 13 |
| 14 | 44 | Vaino Makela | 1026 | 41 |
| 15 | 6 | Ezra Robinson | 1040 | 8 |
| 15 | 16 | Andrew Marwede | 1029 | 10 |
| 15 | 19 | Gavin Rathbun | 1026 | 2 |
| 18 | 24 | Cole Redalen | 1033 | 35 |
| 19 | 30 | James Proctor | 1034 | 41 |
| 19 | 49 | Albert Tamm | 1022 | 26 |
| 21 | 54 | Kevin Jones | 1022 | 41 |
| 22 | 16 | Adam Hammes | 1027 | 32 |
| 23 | 23 | Ezra Aderhold | 1030 | 6 |
| 23 | 28 | Matt Bell | 1027 | 32 |
| 25 | 31 | Alden Harris | 1029 | 54 |
| 25 | 32 | Casey White | 1024 | 21 |
| 27 | 50 | James Conrad | 1026 | 55 |
| 28 | 59 | Evan Scott | 1018 | 69 |
| 28 | 89 | Max Regitnig | 1009 | 46 |
| 30 | 83 | Brodie Smith | 1012 | 55 |
Final 30 MPO Fantasy Projections for OTB
| Order | AF Rank | MPO Player | Rating | 2024 Place |
| 31 | 34 | Jake Hebenheimer | 1023 | 26 |
| 32 | 18 | Luke Humphries | 1024 | 55 |
| 33 | 35 | Robert Burridge | 1022 | 10 |
| 33 | 37 | Paul Ulibarri | 1027 | 50 |
| 35 | 41 | Chris Clemons | 1026 | 63 |
| 35 | 45 | Bradley Williams | 1029 | 13 |
| 35 | 61 | Chandler Kramer | 1021 | 31 |
| 38 | 76 | Chandler Fry | 1016 | 32 |
| 39 | 72 | Zachary Nash | 1015 | 8 |
| 40 | 82 | Jake Monn | 1011 | 55 |
| 41 | 67 | Jared Stoll | 1010 | 55 |
| 42 | 42 | Ty Love | 1019 | 63 |
| 42 | 46 | Randon Latta | 1011 | 3 |
| 44 | 60 | Jesse Nieminen | 1023 | 21 |
| 45 | 68 | Luke Samson | 1015 | 46 |
| 45 | 74 | Connor Rock | 1013 | 50 |
| 47 | 92 | Tuomas Hyytiäinen | 1012 | 38 |
| 48 | 53 | Garrett Gurthie | 1023 | 10 |
| 49 | 57 | Kevin Kiefer | 1021 | 38 |
| 50 | 70 | Drew Gibson | 1022 | 55 |
| 50 | 71 | Linus Carlsson | 1008 | 63 |
| 50 | 81 | Micah Groth | 1019 | 63 |
| 53 | 52 | Joona Heinänen | 1023 | 24 |
| 54 | 43 | Gavin Babcock | 1027 | 4 |
| 55 | 62 | Raven Newsom | 1015 | 71 |
| 56 | 75 | Nikko Locastro | 1016 | 41 |
| 57 | 85 | Connor O'Reilly | 1010 | 41 |
| 57 | 100 | Sullivan Tipton | 1017 | 4 |
| 59 | 55 | Austin Turner | 1017 | 35 |
| 60 | 65 | Parker Welck | 1017 | 38 |