The Dynamics of PowR

Art’s Fudge approach to Power Rankings (PowR) is to take in-season, larger views of player values, beyond our standard weekly rankings and event rankings.

We combine the two divisions (MPO and FPO), as that comes up in standard fantasy leagues, in the 2 popular formats, at every event on the standard fantasy schedule. Be it season draft leagues or the weekly redraft format, the strength of field in FPO has tangible impact in how fantasy owners realize value in the MPO division, with regards to fantasy picks.

Power in these rankings, is derived from data that tracks how players are trending, along with performance history. Strength of players is realized through a combined list where value of each player is relative to the field of fantasy picks in lieu of the PowR components. The 4 primary components are:

• how each player is doing in their last 3 to 5 events (30%)
• how many fantasy relevant events each player is playing in the next period (25%)
• what is each player’s historical performance at the upcoming events (30%)
• what is each player’s current ranking on AF’s standard list (15%)

Fantasy relevant events are: A – tournaments found on most standard fantasy schedules, which often are Elite or Major tier events; and B – tournaments with a strength of field that could sufficiently roster players in a custom fantasy schedule. Generally these are A tier events on schedule, in between bigger events, but tournaments that attract a substantial amount of elite pros. Our primary stipulation is it must have balance between MPO and FPO to meet our criteria of fantasy relevant event.

Taking The Deep Dive

The PowR list continues to be a work in progress, with new ways of analyzing the data occurring to us. A mid 2024 addition is the projection of Elite + Major Average (EM Avg) after the upcoming period ends. Other projections are taken into account in our rankings offline, and are part of what is informing of the overall order.

Here are the ways color is being layered into our PowR list:

• AF PowR is the order of the list, 1 through 50
  • Color is depicting tier each MPO and FPO player is on, that resembles tiers for our standard rankings, yet being a combined list, is altering that approach just a bit
• Pro Player column is player name along with color depicting if MPO (blue) or FPO (pink)
• AF Prev PR indicates where the player was in the previous top 50 PowR list
  • red color indicates they are down from previous update
  • green indicates they are up from the previous update
  • orange is reserved for players previously not ranked in top 50 (UR)
  • black is for any player who’s order is same as previous update
• Rating conveys what player Rating currently is, within the period
  • color backgrounds here match how our standard rankings handle color on player rating
• EM Avg is showing the player’s average in the season at the start of current period
  • color is indicating who are the top 5, in each division currently on this stat
• Proj EM Avg indicates what AF predicts will be each player’s EM avg at end of the current period
  • orange color indicates they’ll be within one place of current average (up or down 1.0 or less)
  • green color is for players predicted to be over 1.0 place better at than start of the period
  • red is for players predicted to be over 1.0 place worse than start of the current period
• X Playing notes the amount of events the player is registered for in the current period
  • color background is similar to our Next Up on standard rankings, while this list is taking their combined player performance average over multiple events to indicate how they have done historically at the upcoming events
  • red text on a number means at least one of the events in the current period is the player’s first time playing that tournament in past 5 years
  • black text means all events they are playing are ones they’ve played at least twice in past 5 years

Crafting The Formula

At the core of our PowR list is human judgment. This human touch ensures that our rankings capture the nuanced dynamics of the sport—elements that might be overlooked by purely formulaic approaches. We believe that while algorithms and AI can process vast amounts of data, they often lack the discernment required to account for anomalies, contextual factors, and the unexpected shifts. This approach isn’t about resisting automation; it’s about championing the irreplaceable value of human expertise. As with any significant technological shift, we anticipate a gradual but impactful transformation, one that we are ready to embrace thoughtfully and strategically.