Post event update: There is often much analysis that goes into event rankings and predictions. Not the least of which is analyzing how effective our criteria is for making accurate predictions. With that said, this FPO list marks the first time in 2024 we hit our goal of getting 20% or better of picks that are spot on.

The event before Texas State did use different criteria, and was clear that USWDGC is much stronger and longer field than all other FPO events, and so our typical criteria for accurately assessing our predictions was in play for FPO at Texas State, which is:

• Yellow = 0 to 1 place that the Order (guess) was off from 2024 (actual) place is top tier prediction. This we consider “Spot On.” Exact Match or zero off is the ideal (green number), but the range for top tier guess is within 1 of being correct.
• Green = 2 to 6 places off is “Semi-close.” 
• Orange = 7 to 12 places off is “Somewhat off”
• Red = 13 to 20 places off is “Well off”
• Gray = 21+ places off or “Way off”

And here are the results and added analysis:

• 7 of 30 were spot on = 23% = AF goal reached!
• 18 of 30 were semi-close or better = 60%
• 23% more were somewhat off (orange)
• 17% were either well off or way off (red and gray)
• We were way off on our pick with winner of the event: Anniken Steen
• We listed 7 players who played the event for their first time
  • 5 of 7 finished in 20th place or worse
  • 4 of 7 finished in 25th or worse
  • 1 of 7 playing the event for her first time won the event
• 0% of our predictions were exact matches
  • Fortunately close counts for spot on predictions

What is below was published before the event started.

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Our FPO predictions, or event rankings, continue with the next Elite event on tour. This is our 5th attempt of the 2024 pro disc golf season to accurately project the top 30 finishes for the tournament. Our goal is to get 20% accuracy for each of the 30 we have in order on the list below. Our hope is these rankings inform fantasy disc golf participants as well as entertain fans of the pro tour. 

Last Updated:8 pm on Thursday Mar. 28 (reflect P. Shue dropping)
Last checked: Same as update

Simple and Layered Methodology

The event predictions are truly meant to be viewed as simple list, depicting projected order they’ll finish from 1 through 30, along with their AF latest ranking (updated earlier this week), then player name, rating, and actual place they end up at 2024 Texas State.

We’ve learned to predict ties in standings as they happen at every disc golf Open event. We highlight names of players who have historically done well at the event (green) or not so well (red). Red text on player name indicates it is their first time playing the tournament in past 5 years. Green text on name indicates they were top 3 at Texas State in 2023. Sai Ananda is the defending champion.

Colors are adding in layers of added information, that get long winded in the details. Here is recent link to where we last went into details on our color scheme, pertaining to this list.

Of the 20 or so FPO in the field that are playing, but not part of our list, there are 3 types of players in that mix. Some are ones we rank who are outside top 30, and saved as a sort of waiting list in case others on the list drop from the event. The 2nd type are players who we are tracking, but are not quite fantasy relevant. They could be by the next event, and we will continue to monitor them. The 3rd type are lower rated players who may surprise many and do well at the event, though typically over 3 rounds of elite level play, they tend to settle near the bottom of the standings. Our hope is to rank them someday based on them rising up. With that said:

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Tip: Put mobile phone in landscape mode for better view of table below.

quick color guide

Top 30 FPO Event Rankings at Texas State