Top 10 FPO Tournament Projections at BSF

Post event update: These projections ended up being incomplete, due to Art feeling under the weather around this time of the season. The BSF event predictions never made it to a full list. While there was 4 of the top 10 that were at least semi-close, including the overall winner predicted, the intention is always to get to a full list of around 30 deep on event projections for FPO. We intend on making this the only incomplete event rankings in 2024.

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Art’s Fudge Event Rankings are a dynamically updated list of pros registered for the next big event on the pro tour. This page starts with a top 10 list published 5 to 10 days before the tournament starts. The list for FPO then grows to a top 25 – 30 list of fantasy projections, once the most recent event preceding it has completed, and our standard rankings are updated.

Now that this page is live, and until the event starts, we actively track players that drop from the tournament, and update the lists when impacted. We note when this page is last updated, or last checked, noting if there are no changes since last update.

Color Layer on Names

• Any color background means they’ve played at least twice in past 5 years, and thus have an average place in that period. No background color means they’ve played BSF once or less in past 5 years. Less meaning 2024 is first time they’re playing the event. Everyone in this top 10 list has played the event at least once in recent years.
• Yellow background is for players averaging 3rd place or better at BSF in past 5 years
  • No player in the field has achieved this for BSF in past 5 years
    • Handley took 2nd in her only time playing in 2023, and Valerie won in her only time playing in 2022.  
• Green background is for averaging 4th to 14th place in past 5 years. 
  • BSF is the first time AF published a list where the top 10 were all green.
• Green text (always) means they finished in top 3 at the event in the previous year. Which for 2023 Portland was:
  • Jen Allen (not playing in 2024) won, Holyn took 2nd and Maria placed 3rd.
• Gold text is for player who’s played once in past 5 years and placed 4th thru 8th
• Orange text is for placing 9th through 14th in the one time played in past 5 years
• Purple text is for placing outside top 28 in the one time played in past 5 years
• Red text is for any player playing Portland for their first time in past 5 years

What’s below is what has become our standard text for the full list of 30 (coming soon, usually appears at bottom of page).

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Event rankings are the new kid on the block for listing pro players in an orderly way for upcoming events of the pro disc golf season. Our hope is these rankings inform fantasy disc golf participants as well as entertain fans of pro disc golf for this particular event.  

First published: 12:30 pm on Wednesday May 29th (original top 10)
Last updated: TBD (this is usually where we note dropped players)
Last checked: TBD

A Winning Formula

…is what we someday hope to write about our Event Rankings, and show off just how good AF is at predicting results for pro disc golf tournaments. It continues to show up as challenging, quite humbling, and addictive fun. Predictive analysis is certainly important, though we are learning it takes courage no formula can reasonably obtain.

With that said, our modest goal is to achieve 20% accuracy in our predictions for the top 30 in FPO, and top 75 in MPO. We count 1 place off in FPO as correct (enough), while exact matches are the ideal. Most weeks we don’t quite hit the goal, but so far in 2024, we have hit the target four times, getting 20% accuracy for Jonesboro and Champions Cup, 23% for Texas State, and 24% for DDO predictions.

Keeping It Simple

The event predictions are truly meant to be viewed as simple list, depicting projected order they’ll finish from 1 through 30, along with their AF latest ranking (updated earlier this week), then player name, rating, and actual place they end up at 2024 BSF.

Colors are adding in layers of added information, that convey how well AF assesses they are doing so far this season, as well as historical performance at BSF tournaments in the past 5 years. Please use this link for details on our color scheme, pertaining to this list.

Ranked Players and the Unranked

Of the 15 or so FPO in the field that are playing, but not part of our list, there are 3 types of players in that mix. Some are ones we rank who are outside top 30, and saved as a sort of waiting list in case others on the list drop from the event. The 2nd type are players who we are tracking, but are not quite fantasy relevant. They could be by the next event, and we will continue to monitor them. The 3rd type are lower rated players who may surprise many and do well at the event, though typically over 3 rounds of elite level play, they tend to settle near the bottom of the standings. Our hope is to rank them someday based on them rising up. With that said:

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Tip: Put mobile phone in landscape mode for better view of table below.

quick color guide