Post event update: Missy Gannon took down her 3 big win of the season, in what amounted to a 2 round heads up battle with Holyn Handley. In both round 2, and round 3, around the 10th hole, Holyn went up a stroke and had the momentum. Missy answered it both times and ended up tying her score those 2 rounds. Fortunately, Missy had hot round of the tournament in round 1.  

Our projections this time around generated some movement and excitement. We hit the target goal of 20% for our 5th time in 2024. We can still recall after first 4 events of the season and not hitting the target, thinking it might be too challenging to ever get it. Here are the numbers for our accuracy with predictions at the Preserve tournament:

• 21% (6 of 29) were spot on, with 0 being exact match
• 55% (16 of 29) were semi close or better (yellow and green combined)
• 28% (8 of 25) were somewhat off (orange)
• 17% (5 of 25) were well off or worse (4 red and 1 gray combined)

Our goal of achieving 20% spot on predictions or better remains, though we will also be emphasizing semi close or better as well as exact matches, moving forward. Truly exact matches are the ultimate goal, but getting 4 of those in a week is proving to be elusive, and we seek to change that. 

What’s below is what we published before the event started.

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Event rankings are the new kid on the block for listing pro players in an orderly way for upcoming events of the pro disc golf season. Our hope is these rankings inform fantasy disc golf participants as well as entertain fans of pro disc golf for this particular event.  

First published: 7 pm on Thurs. June 20th (full list)
Last updated: TBD (this is usually where we note dropped players)
Last checked: TBD

A Winning Formula

…is what we someday hope to write about our Event Rankings, and show off just how good AF is at predicting results for pro disc golf tournaments. It continues to show up as challenging, quite humbling, and addictive fun. Predictive analysis is certainly important, though we are learning it takes courage no formula can reasonably obtain.

With that said, our modest goal is to achieve 20% accuracy in our predictions for the top 30 in FPO, and top 75 in MPO. We count 1 place off in FPO as correct (enough), while exact matches are the ideal. Most weeks we don’t quite hit the goal, but so far in 2024, we have hit the target four times, getting 20% accuracy for Jonesboro and Champions Cup, 23% for Texas State, and 24% for DDO predictions.

Keeping It Simple

The event predictions are truly meant to be viewed as simple list, depicting projected order they’ll finish from 1 through 30, along with their AF latest ranking (updated earlier this week), then player name, rating, and actual place they end up at 2024 Preserve.

Colors are adding in layers of added information, that convey how well AF assesses they are doing so far this season, as well as historical performance at BSF tournaments in the past 5 years. Please use this link for details on our color scheme, pertaining to this list.

Ranked Players and the Unranked

Of the 15 or so FPO in the field that are playing, but not part of our list, there are 3 types of players in that mix. Some are ones we rank who are outside top 30, and saved as a sort of waiting list in case others on the list drop from the event. The 2nd type are players who we are tracking, but are not quite fantasy relevant. They could be by the next event, and we will continue to monitor them. The 3rd type are lower rated players who may surprise many and do well at the event, though typically over 3 rounds of elite level play, they tend to settle near the bottom of the standings. Our hope is to rank them someday based on them rising up. With that said:

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Tip: Put mobile phone in landscape mode for better view of table below.

quick color guide

Top 30 FPO Tournament Projections at the Preserve