Post event update: For FPO, DMC wasn’t marked by top pros struggling as much as a rookie putting in final round in way that makes it tough to beat someone that much on fire. Emily Weatherman ended up winning by 3 strokes over rest of the field, taking it down from the chase card for the first time, by anyone, in Elite event in FPO, since 2017.

Our projections fell a bit short on targets we aim for, though we did excellent by having 0 predictions that were way off for FPO. Here are the numbers for our accuracy with predictions at the DMC tournament:

• 17% (5 of 30) were spot on, with 3 being exact matches
• 50% (15 of 30) were semi close or better (yellow and green combined)
• 37% (11 of 30) were somewhat off (orange)
• 13% (4 of 30) were well off or worse (4 red and 0 gray combined)

Our goal of achieving 20% spot on predictions, or better, remains, and is now coupled with added goal of 60% or better for FPO predictions to be semi close or better. Truly exact matches are the ultimate goal, but getting 4 of those in a week is still proving to be elusive, though we had 3 in a row this time around. 

What’s below is what we published before the event started.

---

Event rankings are the new kid on the block for listing pro players in an orderly way for upcoming events of the pro disc golf season. Our hope is these rankings inform fantasy disc golf participants as well as entertain fans of pro disc golf for this particular event.  

First published: 11:15 am on Wed. July 3rd (full list)
Last updated: TBD (this is usually where we note dropped players)
Last checked: 5:00 am, Fri. July 5th (no changes since first published)

A Winning Formula

…is what we someday hope to write about our Event Rankings, and show off just how good AF is at predicting results for pro disc golf tournaments. It continues to show up as challenging, quite humbling, and addictive fun. Predictive analysis is certainly important, though we are learning it takes courage no formula can reasonably obtain.

With that said, our modest goal is to achieve 20% accuracy in our predictions for the top 30 in FPO, and top 60 in MPO. For FPO, we’ve hit that target 5 times this season, and are updating the targets a bit. We will also be aiming for 70% that are semi close or better in picks, as well as 4 exact matches. The new added goals have been tracked all season, and are not as easy as they may sound.

Keeping It Simple

The event predictions are truly meant to be viewed as simple list, depicting projected order they’ll finish from 1 through 30, along with their AF latest ranking (updated earlier this week), then player name, rating, and actual place they end up at 2024 Preserve.

Colors are adding in layers of added information, that convey how well AF assesses they are doing so far this season, as well as historical performance at DMC tournaments in the past 5 years. Please use this link for details on our color scheme, pertaining to this list.

Ranked Players and the Unranked

Of the 15 or so FPO in the field that are playing, but not part of our list, there are 3 types of players in that mix. Some are ones we rank who are outside top 30, and saved as a sort of waiting list in case others on the list drop from the event. The 2nd type are players who we are tracking, but are not quite fantasy relevant. They could be by the next event, and we will continue to monitor them. The 3rd type are lower rated players who may surprise many and do well at the event, though typically over 3 rounds of elite level play, they tend to settle near the bottom of the standings. Our hope is to rank them someday based on them rising up. With that said:

---

Tip: Put mobile phone in landscape mode for better view of table below.

quick color guide

Top 30 FPO Tournament Projections at the Preserve