Top 30 FPO Tournament Projections at GMC

Tip: Put mobile phone in landscape mode for better view of table below.

quick color guide

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Post event update: Playoffs often bring out the best among the sport’s best players. GMC as round 1 of 2024 pro disc golf playoffs had Kristin Tattar leading the field after first 2 of 4 rounds, then sliding to 3rd after round 3, and midway through the final round, the 2 leaders entering the day, Ohn Scoggins and Silva Saarinen looked to be running away with it. Ohn would go onto bogey 3 of the final 9 holes, and Silva bogeyed 3 of the final 4 holes, while Tattar went bogey-free with 6 birdies in the final 10 holes, forcing a playoff (within the playoffs) against Silva. Tattar won, of course. Silva has nothing to hang her head about given the caliber of competition in this event and her exemplary play.

Our projections ended up very good for this event, and considerably above our average for the season. Here are the numbers:

• 13% (4 of 30) were spot on, with 3 being exact matches
• 73% (22 of 30) were semi close or better (yellow and green combined)
• 20% (6 of 30) were somewhat off (orange)
• 7% (2 of 30) were well off or worse (2 red and 0 gray combined)

Our goal of achieving 20% spot on predictions, or better, was missed, which is surprising considering the next stat. Our newer goal of 55% or better for FPO predictions to be semi close or better was easily hit and surpassed by a significant margin. Getting just 2 of the 30 that were well off or worse is awesome, considering the previous event (DGLO) we had 3 gray, and 4 red. Maple Hill is the event next up, with a full list of 30 projections, battling to be among the top 20 going to the finals.

What’s below is what we published before the event started.

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Event rankings are the new kid on the block for listing pro players in an orderly way for upcoming events of the pro disc golf season. Our hope is these rankings inform fantasy disc golf participants as well as entertain fans of pro disc golf for this particular event.  

First published: 10:30 am on Wednesday Sept. 18th
Last updated: TBD (this is usually where we note dropped players)
Last checked: 6:45 am on Thur. Sept. 19th, no changes since first published

A Winning Formula

…is what we someday hope to write about our Event Rankings, and show off just how good AF is at predicting results for pro disc golf tournaments. It continues to show up as challenging, quite humbling, and addictive fun. Predictive analysis is certainly important, though we are learning it takes courage no formula can reasonably obtain.

With that said, our modest goal is to achieve 20% accuracy in our predictions for the top 30 in FPO, as well as 55% on what we call semi-close or better, or within a tier of being a correct prediction. We count 1 place off in FPO as correct (enough), while exact matches are the ideal. Most weeks we don’t quite hit the goal, but so far in 2024, we have hit the target 6 or 7 times, getting 20% accuracy..

Keeping It Simple

The event predictions are truly meant to be viewed as simple list, depicting projected order they’ll finish from 1 through 30, along with their AF latest ranking (updated earlier this week), then player name, rating, and actual place they end up at 2024 GMC.

Colors are adding in layers of added information, that convey how well AF assesses they are doing so far this season, as well as historical performance at GMC tournaments in the past 5 years. Please our Event Rankings Guide for colorful details.

Ranked Players and the Unranked

Of the 10 or so FPO in the field that are playing, but not part of our list, there are (for playoffs) 2 types of players in that mix. Some are ones we rank who are outside top 30, and saved as a sort of waiting list in case others on the list drop from the event. The 2nd type are players who we are tracking, but are not quite fantasy relevant. They could be by the next event, and we will continue to monitor them. With that said:

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